Older Consumers to Lead Online Spending in Emerging Markets
A significant demographic transformation in e-commerce is anticipated across emerging markets within the coming decade. World Data Lab and EBANX research indicates that individuals aged 45 and older will contribute 51% of the USD 4.4 trillion growth in yearly online expenditures in these regions by 2036, marking a key shift for the sector, previously led by younger, mobile-oriented users. The pace of this transition accelerates fastest among those 65 and over, whose annual online spending growth is projected at 12.2%, the highest rate among all age groups.
Consumers aged 45 to 64 are forecasted to allocate USD 318 billion to gaming, streaming, and social media by 2036, approximately 25% higher than the 15-29 demographic. Wolfgang Fengler, CEO of World Data Lab, noted that while some of these older users already engage in mobile shopping, others will make their initial online transactions during their fifties or sixties. He cautioned that merchants targeting exclusively young, tech-savvy users may overlook both established and newly emerging older consumers.
The study further anticipates that the majority of first-time online shoppers in emerging markets by 2036 will be over 45: 223 million aged 45-64 and 170 million aged 65 and older. Despite this demographic pivot, younger consumers remain critical to e-commerce in regions with youthful populations, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, where 221 million individuals aged 15-29 will initiate digital purchases within the next decade. Across all emerging markets, this age group’s online spending is expected to rise by USD 1.9 trillion, reflecting an 8.7% annual growth rate—the second-highest after the 12.2% rate for those 65 and over.
This momentum aligns with the expansion of the global middle class, projected to add 930 million adults by 2036, reaching 3.8 billion in total. Two-thirds of these new members will join as their daily expenditures exceed USD 13, the threshold defining middle-class status, while the remainder stem from population growth.
During the same period, this income bracket in developed markets is expected to shrink by 37 million. “Over the same period, this income bracket is expected to shrink by 37 million in developed markets. A difference of almost a billion consumers in a single decade reveals a clear shift in the center of gravity of global consumption and cross-border business, which is moving toward the countries where most of the world’s population lives,” said Marie-Elise Droga, Chief Revenue Officer at EBANX.
Decoupling from credit cards
Unlike many developed economies where credit cards dominate online transactions, emerging markets show reduced reliance on these traditional financial tools. The WDL and EBANX analysis projects that online spending by adults without credit cards in these regions will surge 130% over the next decade, climbing from USD 3.3 trillion currently to USD 7.6 trillion by 2036. This growth is fueled by financial innovations tailored to local consumer behaviors and mobile-centric economies.
Only 20% of adults in emerging markets will hold credit cards by 2036, significantly lower than the 66% projected for developed economies. Consequently, two-thirds of new e-commerce users in these markets will enter without a card. Their primary payment gateways include local payment methods (LPMs), such as mobile money, digital wallets, locally issued debit cards, and instant account-to-account (A2A) transfers, including examples like Brazil’s Pix, India’s UPI, and Colombia’s Bre-B.
What this means for global merchants
An aging, expanding, wealthier, and digitally engaged consumer base introduces fresh demand across all digital sectors in emerging markets. While retail leads growth through 2036, contributing USD 4.3 trillion, other sectors will also expand: video gaming at 14.2% annually (USD 352 billion incremental sales), social media at 9.7% (USD 202 billion), SaaS at 9.6% (USD 459 billion), travel at 8.1% (USD 1.2 trillion), and streaming at 8% (USD 194 billion). In every category, over half of online spending in these markets comes from consumers without credit cards.
Merchants limiting payment options to cards risk missing out on the majority of this growth. The study highlights that 957 million individuals in these countries already engage in digital payments but have not yet made online purchases, representing a vast revenue opportunity for businesses adapting to local payment preferences. “If your checkout only takes credit cards, you are competing for one in five adults in emerging markets and conceding the other four,” said Marie-Elise Droga. “The merchants growing fastest with us didn’t wait for cards to arrive: they added the payment rails their customers already use, and they’re taking new buyers, bigger baskets and recurring revenue that card-only competitors can’t even see.”
